Will the Wii bubble now finally burst?

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For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.

  • Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.
  • The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.
  • The Xbox 360 is cheaper.
  • The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.
  • The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovelware. And game consoles are for playing games.
  • Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.
  • The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.
  • Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.
  • Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.
  • Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.

So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.

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35 Comments


  1. I agree that the Wii is about to burst, but I will have to disagree with 5th point, since Nintedo hasn’t released ALL of their good games, such as F-Zero which will appeal to the racing gamer, in addition to Starfox, which appeals to the shooting and adventure gamers.
    We should not forget the sequels to Zelda, Mario, Metroid, Wario, Super Smash Brothers. There are also some new games which will be interesting to the masses, such as Kirby, Kid Icarus, Castlevania, Megaman, a Luigi game, Pokemon, Yoshi’s Island, Pikmin.
    I agree that the majority of the current Wii games are bad, but if Nintendo and a couple of major 3rd party publishers stand firmly by the Wii, it will remain a good seller. I just wish that game developers deliver better quality products, not the garbage released everyday.


  2. You have been predicting this for a long time. Isn’t it about time you gave the Wii and Nintendo some credit.
    The Wii isnt going anywhere. They haven’t cut the price, made different sku’s or made different coloured Wiis yet and they can’t keep them on the shelves. Last big Christmas for the Wii? Not a hope.


  4. If you only knew how much of a demand the Wii still is you would have thought twice before writing such Fanboyish comments… I work overnights at a Wal-Mart here in western Canada and there was talk and rumor of a shipment coming in wednesday night of last week. We had people camping outside of electronics with lawn chairs books Ect… We got in 48 systems plus 15 Wii fits and withing 30 minutes ALL were sold… now if you thinks thats the start of a bubble bursting you should really go take an economics course because you are so far off it’s painfull to watch… the wii is the only FAMILY system on the market right now… I have a six year old daughter and we were looking for some decent games for my 360 and had one hell of a time.. Even Banjo Kazooie is geared toward adults and my daughter had no trouble playing the N64 version… The sales of the Wii have nothing to do with bing powerful or fadish… The Wii sells because parents know they can get games for their kids and they also know that not being great gamers themselves they can join in on the games with their kids and be able to acctually participate… The Wii is here for a long time… Just think back to gameboy first generation… how many stupid years did that thing hang around even though turbo express, game gear, and atari lynx were far superior systems… there now I have my 2 cents in… lol…


  5. I have been wondering the same thing for the past year, how much longer can the Wii keep it up? Sure the are some less than desirable aspects about the Wii that the competitors do better, but…

    My 65 year old father in law didn’t by a 360 or PS3, he bought a Wii!

    ^this is why.

    I have been an avid gamer for the past 30 years. From computers to consoles, from Trash 80’s and 2600’s to now. Of course this doesn’t make me an expert, but I have never heard or seen anyone in that age group talk about or actually buy a piece of hardware for the sole purpose of playing games. To me that speaks volumes.

    Sure the other consoles have been graphics and better games. However, like my father in law has demonstrated, that’s not the reason he bought it. As long as Wii can keep games that appeal to those who are non gamers coming, I don’t think the bubble is going anywhere but up.


  6. i sure hope your right. As far as I am concerned the Wii could stagnate and crash the gaming market. At least the core gamer market. Why invest 20 million in a MGS5 and 5 years when you can invest 100k and 3 months in a Wii title that only has to sell 20k copies to make money? And you can release 15 games like that a year from a small studio. Why make a console crammed full of outstanding technology and take a loss on each one when you can make a console with tech 10 years old, and add a gimick and sell for a profit?

    Its a scary time for the industry as the uninformed wal-mart shopper is deciding the fate of the core gaming market.


  7. Interesting analysis. My fear about the Wii is that it will begin to compel more and more developers and publishers to forsake adult oriented gaming for the kid-friendly tripe that seems to comprise most of the Wii library. Luckily most third party software on Wii fails miserably so I hope the publishers are smart enough to realize that the core gaming market still matters. I’ll be gaming long after the Wii has run its course.


  8. The big problem with this analysis is that it’s the same one all “professional” analysts have been giving since 2006. What no one understands is that you can’t judge the Wii’s success against traditional industry knowledge. To paraphrase Satoru Iwata, the game has changed, and the way the game is played has to be changed.

    The Wii has a mass market appeal that has nothing to do with its price, nothing to do with the AAA games that so-called hardcore gamers consider “better.” Nintendo targeted an audience of brand new gamers, ones who don’t care about HD graphics, first-person shooters, or survival horror games.

    Microsoft and Sony have dropped the ball all on their own, and pigeonholed themselves into a narrow niche of gaming.

    Of all the analysts I’ve read, Sean Malstrom (who isn’t even a professional games industry analyst) has a better understanding of this generation of the console wars than anyone.


  9. You Bruce call yourself a “veteran games industry marketer” but you don’t have to be a really good one, I suppose… At least not for what you are saying up here on this article… Yes on the Wii there’re a lot of shovelwares (like there was on the PS2), and yes it’s pretty much all about casual market… but go tell the 800.000 people that the last Black Friday went shopping for a Wii… Not a 360… Nor a PS3… but for a Wii!!!

    You missed one, probably the most important, point: The Wii is for the whole family… the other are not…
    they are either played by kids or the more grown up, but they are not able to bring together the whole family.
    And that’s not something that you achieve easliy and overnight… even grand’mas and ‘pas are playing with the Wii… Even friends of my age are afraid of the joypad and those buttons… but they are not afarid of picking up a wiiremote!!!

    So… mister “veteran games industry marketer”, how much you bet that the Wii is going to stay succesfully on the market for the next three years??


  10. Recently I posted an article on my Blog about this very issue. Although you went about using different (although very valid) points. I couldn’t agree more with you, after all look what is happening in Japan, Nintendo sales are falling in correlation with the recession that is taking place in the country. That shows two things; one that already millions of people own Nintendo hardware and that there aren’t too many more who will do, and two that Nintendo are relying too much on the casual market. As when money gets tight, what goes first, oh yes relatively expensive “toys”. Whereas the hardcore will buy games no matter what, well unless of course things get really tough…


  11. Even if the Wii were to crash tomorrow, it still has over 30 million systems worldwide. There is still an install base that should not be ignored.

    Tell you what, when April rolls around and The Conduit, Madworld, and House of the Dead Overkill have launched, write another article about why the Wii should die. If those games come out and are absolute failures (and I mean in gameplay, not necessarily sales), then maybe the idea that the Wii represents is not as grand as we’d like it to be. (I choose those games becasue other than Nintendo releases, there are ZERO AAA titles from 3rd parties currently available on the system.)

    Instead of being negative, why not be positive? Why not write an article encouraging developers to create better games for the Wii? What do you have to lose?


  12. “the wii could stagnate and crash the gaming market”
    the fact is that without the wii the gaming market WOULD BE PRETTY MUCH FACING EXTINCTION, because it would be saturated with the SAME HIGH END (and high to manufacure) GENERIC sand-box games, FPS games, stupid sports games(this IS NOT HARDCORE, stop bullshitting yourselves) and racing games.
    go on and tell me the percentage of PS3 and XBOX games that fall on that category… ?
    now tell me if you’re not getting tired of the same old shit? (not matter how pretty it looks, it’s the same old shit) what nintendo did was a stroke of genius, not only did they create an AFFORDABLE HIGH END GAMING SYSTEM(again, get your head out of your ass and recognize that circuit by circuit and spec by spec, and QUALITY, nintendo’s Wii is the far superior system)
    then again, i’m being biased cuz I like to have fun and i’m tired of playing half-life and GTA clones…
    a monkey in a suit is still a monkey and a crappy game is still crappy no matter how sweet the graphics are (unless you’re a troll)


  13. one more thing, If I remember correctly the PSX and even the PS2 was SATURATED with crappy games… I know, I worked in the industry during those times.
    another thing, can someone please define “hardcore” and “adult oriented games”
    and no, pretty graphics, foul mouthed fools, big explosions, nudity an online connectivity do not make a game hardcore.


  15. nice write up, fanboy. if you didn’t know, the wii won this generation. accept it.


  16. Ah, the dinosaur analyst trying to make sense of the Wii’s sales according to ancient demographics-segregation from generations past.

    Look, I’ve been gaming since the Atari and my home looks like a videogames museum since, aside from both Xbox systems and the Genesis and Saturn, I own every other console released. This generation, Wii has been the console I decided to start on since it offered a unique gaming experience, great control for First Person perspective games and Nintendo’s franchises are some of the most fun and enduring of all time.

    My family has purchased 3 Wii consoles (my brother and his wife has one, my little sister has one and me and my wife have one) and between us all we own 70 Wii games (I alone own 50 and my sister will JUST get her own Wii on christmas which is why she still has no game purchases) and no matter how cheap a 360 is I won’t be owning one due to Microsoft’s ability to make it’s console be THE worst this generation as far as dependability and durability are concerned.

    I’m considering purchasing a PS3 between August-December 2009 once more games I’m interested in and price come down next year since RIGHT NOW I can’t find a reason to do so (aside from Blu Ray movies). And I’ve owned a 1080p TV for a year and a half and can honestly say that the Wii, hooked-up by component cables, looks amazing at 480p on a 40″ HD LCD (Metroid Prime 3, Super Mario Galaxy, Excite Truck, Zack & Wiki, Dewy’s Adventure, Zelda, de Blob, Endless Ocean, Lost Winds, Toki Tori, Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles, Resident Evil 4, Harvey Birdman and Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, to name a few, all say hi).

    When a console manages to sell over 2 million JUST in the US, talking about a “bubble bursting” with a straight face seems, well, wrong. Just because you don’t agree with what one company is doing doesn’t mean you can ignore their success and push it aside as a “fluke” due to “consumer ignorance”.

    And finally, Live might be the best online experience, but that’s the least that could be expected from something that costs $50 a year…


  17. you know, for a veteran, you seem to act like a newbie, every generation there has always been a system that once it takes off it nevers drops again:

    1.Atari 2600
    2.Nintendo NES
    3.Nintendo Gameboy
    4.Super Nintendo
    5.Gameboy Color
    6.Playstation 1
    7.Gameboy Advance
    8.Playstation 2
    9.Nintendo DS
    10.Nintendo Wii
    11.Nintendo Ds lite

    Once those console became number 1 and never turned around again for their competition.

    and your points:

    1.Video games don’t have “bubbles” they sell for generations, and as the Gameboy and Ps2 have shown, they will sell for as long as they are available. If anything the whole industry would collapse as “THE VIDEOGAME BUBBLE” bursts, not single consoles.

    2.HDTV sure is growing, but not 1080p sets, and specially not in bedrooms, where most consoles will be placed, not everyone puts in the living room on their big tv.

    3.The xbox360 is cheaper, except that most hardcore gamers dont buy the cheapest, they need the hard drive.

    4.According to most polls, most people prefer the Wii games and hardcore games tend to be 1 for a month and sell 10 millions pretty fast, and then drops out of the top ten.

    5.That’s what happens when you have cheap toolset and you are succesful. Sony had the same thing, and they didn’t mind mentioning that the had 1500 games available, 1000 were pretty crappy games.

    6.I agre with you, but considering that Wii Fit, Brain Training and Wii Play are in the top ten since a few years, it really shows that new games are what people are buying the most not Mario.

    7.To make money you need to make a good game that people wiil buy, no matter how simple it is. The other thing is advertising, Wii gamers aren’t based on what their blogger or game magazine is telling them to buy, what they see on tv and hear on the news is the new thing.If you are making a Wii game, expect to also put some money in marketing, the thing will not sell itself just by throwing a party for IGN employees. Things have changed.

    8.All consoles are toys, no matter how you much you love them. Unmarried adults like to buy videogames, and as they marry they drop the expensive hobby, but this thing is mostly toys or “technologically advanced timewasters”.

    9.No one can say what will happen this early, but I expect Sony to be the worst and will have second thoughts about making a PS4 that expensive, Microsoft is filthy rich and since they didn’t care how much money they are putting into the xbox360, they are probably happy that they sell, no matter how much it costs to have penetration on people’s living room. They have always wanted to have Windows for the TV, and the xboxis their trojan horse. and Wii is the big thing right now, as many of the posters have said, everyone gotta have a wii.

    10.Just last week, it was announced that the Wii sold 2 million consoles during november so maybe you are wrong or people are buying a second wii.


  18. Three factors that havn’t been mentioned so far will influence the total non-demise of the wii for some time.

    1) Monster Hunter 3 making it a must buy for the Japanese core gamer who has avoided the wii like the plauge thus far. Monster Hunter is THE system seller for that market.

    2)Dragon bloody Quest 10 being announced as a wii exclusive. Another huge Japanese core-gamer staple that will ensure queues round the block from Yodabashi Camera on day of release.

    3) Satoru Iwata commenting on the Dragon Quest exclusivity:

    “At Nintendo, we were able to popularise the Brain Age series overseas, which was said to be unmarketable. I want to increase the number of people worldwide that understand the appeal of Dragon Quest.”

    Nintendo could more or less market snow to eskimos at the moment, so this should be interesting.


  19. There is a problem I have with a few of your points:

    P1 – Well, this is kind of a “duh” response. The Wii isn’t going to sustain these sales forever, but at the same time that doesn’t mean that from here on out it will be a “zero to sixty” plummet to disappointing sales. Heck, note that Nintendo hasn’t even employed a major promotional campaign to boost Wii sales yet because there hasn’t been a need to. Both MS and Sony have had price reductions, multiple SKU introductions and promotional packages to boost falling sales. All Nintendo has done is increase production. When sales fall, they are completely open to new promotional methods to keep interest in the console going beyond the current owners. Were going into year three of the Wii and the bubble still has yet to burst where MS and Sony’s burst a long time ago.

    P2 – HDTV penetration has increased, but to what degree will that affect Wii? While the perks of the 360 will continue to bring in more gamers whether they be technophiles or otherwise, the Wii has gone from strength to strength EVERY time Nintendo bumped up production. I really don’t think the higher penetration of HDTV sales are going to hurt the console in the long run because Wii sales have increased year on year despite the increases made in HDTV sales. Heck, there are people with HDTVs that are out there buying the Wii despite the fact the console doesn’t natively support a true HD resolution. They’re simply looking for a good time and Nintendo is providing that to more people than the 360 as a result of appealing to more than just the traditional gaming audience.

    P3 – The 360 being cheaper did help Microsoft this past November, no doubt and it’s a very good price considering the entry level system (Arcade) is not a bad system if all you want to do is play games and be done with it. But we haven’t seen anything thus far that suggests that a price reduction alone, like this, will give it momentum over the Wii. We’ll have to see after the holiday season to gauge that. Heck, the 360 has been less expensive than the Wii in some PAL territories for much longer than in North America and MS can boast about is beating out Sony, which is an issue in conflict because Sony is saying the same thing. But neither company is boasting that they beat out the Wii.

    P4 – The 360 has a lot on offer, but that certainly isn’t an objective view point to go by as to what defines the console’s appeal. There are PS3 fans who claim the PS3 is better because of its tech and having software that exploits that. The Wii has its points for being easy to get into and having a draw with gamers, both established and otherwise. But what we’re seeing is that despite what PS3 or 360 fans say, the Wii continues to go from strength to strength. People expected the Wii bubble to burst and consumers to “come around” back in 2007 and 2008. So when is it going to happen? Is it going to happen at all?

    P5 – For a veteran marketer, your point here doesn’t make sense. I mean, I get the point of “Wii has no good games” which is what you’re essentially saying. (but like beauty, what someone considers good is in the eye of the beholder, there are fans of Super Mario Galaxy as there are of Cooking Mama for instance) However, the part of “consoles are made to play games” pretty much defines what the Wii is. It’s not attempting to be a multimedia platform as any multimedia features it has are represented as extensions of the core functionality which is gaming. Where you at one point had MS pushing HD-DVD (before it fell) and now pressing on with LIVE features like Netflix and then Sony who is still pushing the PS3 as the Blu Ray Trojan Horse) Nintendo has always put it forward that this is a gaming device and these are the games you can play. Not that Sony and MS don’t promote their gaming features or that they aren’t core features of the platform, but if these consoles are made to make games, I’m not sure why you’re listing it in a point bulletin where you are taking issue with the Wii.

    P6 – True, Nintendo has rolled out a lot of their big stuff which is what made their launch to early 2008 pretty good compared to their past consoles, but they still have more to dig into when it comes to their games but the big stuff will require more time to develop. In the meantime, Nintendo can’t hold up the platform alone and there have been great third party games already and even more great third party games on the way. For instance, Nintendo is set to receive mainline entries in three of the biggest RPG IPs in the industry alongside other exclusive content and multiplatform extensions that will fill out the library beyond Nintendo’s own stuff, which includes the upcoming Punch Out and Sin and Punishment 2.

    P7 – Interestingly enough, we’ve been seeing attraction towards the Wii since it launch versus the opposite, which is what you’re arguing. While in the west, things are slower going (although EA, for instance, has been coming around) we are seeing more and more Japanese support building up for the console when it comes to software development.

    P8 – The “fad” argument was old back in 2007 when it was shown it wasn’t going to be the failure some expected and it’s old now when there is evidence out there that suggests otherwise. No doubt that some of the audience on board is trendy but there is no real figure out there that has any breakdown of what the demographics are that are into the Wii. The fact that software sales are up, that Nintendo’s own game sales have largely beaten out their predecessors and that consumer adoption of the platform is relative to increase in production shows that there is a legitimate demand for the console, especially considering we are going into the third year of the platform’s existence. Mind you, it’s not even like big numbers come only during the holidays, the Wii sells incredibly throughout the year and is one of the biggest reasons why the industry generated record breaking revenue this past November.

    P9 – True, spending will decrease the more this economic issue continues on, but I guarantee that there will be two other casualties before the Wii when it comes to gaming consoles. The PS3 (which we’re probably already seeing the effects of thanks to November NPD data) and the 360 which despite having a cheaper SKU still didn’t do much to dent the Wii’s lead at all in any territory where it’s in effect. Casual spending will cease, but the Wii isn’t a casual purchase to everyone, heck, $250-plus out of pocket isn’t exactly an impulse decision. People who are going out and buying the Wii are more than likely pretty dead set that it is what they want.

    P10 – Well, finally a point that makes some objective sense. As I mentioned some points ago, Nintendo can keep up these rate of sales forever. There will a point where they will reach an equilibrium, coming to meet demand, although there is no saying that most who already want one have one just yet. Of course, when that demand is met, Nintendo has more than a few options available to boost sales over time, basically doing what MS and Sony have been doing for some time now.

    I’m not going to question your merit as a veteran marketer, heck people question Pachter’s merit as an analyst and he’s pretty well established in his field. But all things considered, you aren’t really saying anything about why the Wii bubble has finally burst other than pushing out these notions that there are better alternatives and people will eventually find them. All you’re throwing out there are possibilities which everyone from veteran analysts to high school gaming board members have been doing since before the console’s launched. There was a time where people said Wii would be “stillborn” at launch because people will see the graphics on demo displays alongside the PS3/360 and be too “disgusted” to bother with it. Like them, you too are placing too much stock in your own beliefs as some dictating force of the market when everything this generation has shown just how unpredictable it can be. Who really expected Sony to fall so far from the top from one gen to the next, even considering the proverbial “third console curse?” Who really expected Microsoft to ever hold any real presence in Japan to ever outsell the PS3 or Wii? Who really thought that another console other than the PS2 would ever push the kind of numbers Wii just did this past November? Ultimately, who initially had it in mind that Nintendo would become market leader after two generations of declining userbase? This very much reminds me of the early PSP vs. DS debates that pretty much ran the same way. It’s not even an arguing point now as the DS has unquestionably dominated the portable market.

    It’s interesting though, because while people didn’t take much into account Nintendo’s own dominance as a factor for beating out the PSP despite such claims, people DID take into account Sony’s dominance when it came to discussing the PS3’s possibility to remain dominant once again. But I digress, the point I’m making is that nothing is set in stone. For whatever value people feel one console has over the Wii there is a reason the Wii is most often the choice they gravitate to. It’s not that the console is bad or the Wii is better, but that the Wii offers them something they feel they can’t get on another console. If the bubble bursts, all it means is that things will continue to grow more competitive in the market as the Wii averages out to a more stable rate of sales.


  20. The Nintendo Wii could very well be a bubble that is already bursting. ” This is not based on ebay prices or shop inventory. It is based on the buzz and hype going on amongst ordinary everyday people. You wrote this on the 1/7/08
    http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=13718

    So you have been saying the downfall of thew wii for a long time and you will continue until the end of this gen.


  21. David, it has taken you a long time to search the internet to find that. And you miss the point that I said “could” not “is”. In other words all I am doing is discussing the possibilty, much as I am in this current article.
    You really ought to read things properly.


  22. Wii’s hardware sales must go down some day.
    I’m actually impressed that they are still that strong. But falling hardware sales don’t let the Wii as a project fail. Nintendo produces games of incredible quality and applications like Wii Music can keep up with hugh and expensive productions. The Wii is still a good chance for developers and WiiWare expands its lifetime a lot.


  23. So, essentially, your arguments comes down to this…

    ” * Despite the NES selling in much more in a much less hospitable market to a lesser population, eventually reaching 1 in every three households, it’s absolutely impossible from Nintendo’s Wii, which is strikingly similar to sell well, because it did sooooo well in Novemeber. It’s success means it will die.
    * 25% of the country now has HDTVs. Despite the fact that this is just one TV, usually in a different room than the game console, the Wii’s fanbase, who actually doesn’t care about how the game looks, will now notice, care, and buy something else.
    * Casual gamers will save the 50 dollars by buying the 360. Even though the 360 is incomparable to the Wii to them. They wouldn’t have bought the PS2, which has the same values as 360, for 100 dollars less years ago. (I guess lots of people still dead, but they’re not Wii customers, so we’re not talking about them.
    * It is my opinion that the values I place on 360 games are better. Eventually, the public will come to see the reality of my opinion. Because it’s right. It’s a fact that these games are better. Just like, eventually, casual book readers will realize how lame cook books, non-fiction, and How To’s are, and move up to the superior Sci-Fi/Fantast. Because they’re better, because my opinion says so.
    * See above.
    * Nintendo is contractually obligated to only release one Mario, Zelda, and Metroid per console. Since they’ve done that, it’s physically impossible for them to release others in those franchises(Like Miyamoto said they were), release other franchises of theirs(Punch-Out, S&P), or make new ones.
    * [Tired false, oft-repeated stories about 3rd parties not making money or selling on Wii without support or data]
    * The Wii market will move on. To what? I dunno. I guess whatever offers them the Wii but more. Which is probably what Nintendo will do next gen.
    * People won’t buy the 250 dollar Wii. They have no money. Even though people who buy the 360 often spend hundreds more on online play and games, since they obviously need about 14, they’ll pick 360 over Wii, despite WiiSports, Fit, Play and a few others beign able to satisfy them for more than a week and a half, like so many games I like.
    * And, finally, my only point that makes sense. Sales eventually will have to bottom out, therefore I predict they will. I’m a genius!!!”

    Did I get it right?

    See, your problem is that you are absolutely unable to see the videogame market as anything bigger than what it was last gen. Before, it was the core gamer. Now there is so much more, and your old predictions don’t work here. There are different values, which are ONLY being offered by the Wii. Microsoft needed to offer those values before, or shortly after Nintendo did, better and cheaper to beat it. It’s too late now.


  24. I find it hilarious that Bruce Everiss (Clearly a Microsoft fanboy) is attacking the Wii’s lack of software. Do you have ANY idea why Microsoft were FORCED to cut the price of the 360 in September??? Because Microsoft knew that the 360’s software was not worth the price of the console, which is why it was getting soundly beaten by the Wii and the PS3.

    The Xbox 360 IS cheaper than the Nintendo Wii, so why does the Wii still outsell it some 5 – 1??? Maybe a crappy online service (The WORST one available to consumers), a high failure rate and no decent exclusive games aren’t worth the purchase of a console no matter how cheap it is?

    Fast forward to 2009 and things are only looking worse from Microsoft, how many AAA exclusives have Microsoft confirmed to be released for their console in 2009, Bruce???

    Come 2009 the wii will only further outpace the struggling 360 and Microsoft will face increased pressure from Sony as the result of a PS3 price cut, the recent explosion of Blu – Ray and a plethora of AAA titles.

    As Microsoft have proved in the past, price cuts are a short term solution (If they work at all), chances are the 360’s bubble (What’s left of it) will burst long before the Wii.

    Also, please get your facts straight, i don’t care how much Microsoft are paying you to write this garbage but the 360 is not a better console than the Nintendo Wii, the Nintendo Wii doesn’t break down 33% of the time.

    Microsoft’s 360 is clearly staring at a last – place finish this generation, once the price gap between it and the PS3 shortens Microsofts failing product will have NO USP’s!

    Also, while we’re on the subject of the Wii’s last – gen hardware becoming apparant, perhaps you should take a look at some of theese upcoming games in 2009:

    Killzone 2

    Uncharted 2: Among Thieves

    Gran Turismo 5

    God Of War 3

    Demon’s Souls

    Theese games are completely exposing the 360’s last – gen processing abilities compared to the PS3’s CELL. So don’t go attacking the Wii for it’s lack of power, because there’s always a bigger fish (Unless you’re the PS3…..in which case i suppose you’d be some sort of fish god).

    There’s no doubt in my mind that the Wii’s bubble will eventually burst (Right now their exclusive lineup for 2009 is almost as bleak as Microsoft’s) but you’d better believe if Nintendo DO lose this generation, it won’t be at the hands of Microsoft. Rather, a greatly reduced PS3 (Which will take a couple more years).


  25. The longest feature list doesn’t automatically represent the best solution for consumers.

    The games that are driving the Wii aren’t dependent on HD graphics. And even on the 360 and PS3, only a minority of users have bothered with online play. The way that LittleBigPlanet was marketed shows that even Sony fell for their own hype in overestimating the appeal of online.

    I’d be interested to know whose perspective these Xbox-cheerleading, everybody-else-doomsaying articles are supposed to reflect. Middleweight publishers like Codemasters, presumably, who have been blindsided by the Wii and need a single technically advanced platform to dominate the market like the PS2 did for their portfolio to make sense.

    Wishing the newly extended market away doesn’t seem very productive – it would be much more interesting to know what you think third parties should do to get a piece of that market.


  27. @ David McFail

    Can you possibly be any less of a fanboy?

    Your arguments lost all credibility when you state the 360 has the worst online service and no good exclusive games (ever heard of Halo and Gears of War franchises?)


  28. I am also sick of PS3 zealots stating ‘look what’s coming next year’. I seem to remember the same thing in late 2007 when you all stated 2008 was the year of the PS3.

    LBP didn’t save the PS3, neither did MGS4 or Home. What’s to say the list of games David has provided up there are going to be hits?

    I own all 3 consoles, and my Wii gathers dust unless very young relatives visit, my PS3 is mainly used as a Blu-Ray player and my Elite gets most use by a mile.


  29. Can fan-boys please stop posting? You’re ruining it for the rest of us with our well thought out posts opposing Bruce’s stance on the Wii.

    I too have a Wii that is underused and spend more time on my 360 or PC. That’s because I like the games on it. But my family, girlfriend, non-gaming friends all prefer the Wii.

    There is no comparison between the 360/PS3 to the Wii. They aren’t competing. They aren’t just in completely different leagues…their completely different sports.

    While the 360 does very well catering to traditional gamers, and lets not forget that there is plenty of money to be had there too, the Wii deals with everyone else.

    Since it’s in a different league, no one can judge how it can do because there has been nothing like it before.

    I’ll see you all next xmas to discuss the Wii bubble to burst in 2009 and how the PS3 is going to turn the tables next year …or the year after …or the year after that.


  30. @David MacPhail:

    the only thing that will “Phail” this generation is indeed Sony and the PS3… so stop being even more fanboyish than Bruce himself!

    Sorry buddy but PS3 is on a bad negative trend these days and right now I can’t see the light out of that tunnel it’s in!
    Yes, there are lots of great games coming out next year, but the question is: will they be enough to help PS3 to come out from the sandtrap it’s in?
    Also, Sony made the same mistake MS did last gen with hardware manufacture: outsourcing it to many different manufacturers that are the one that makes the prices in most components, thus forcing Sony to keep price high to avoid losing (too much) money.
    nVidia in this case is a f***ing b1tch! Don’t believe me? Go ask MS!!!
    No wonder this time MS went with ATI’s custom chips!
    Nintendo never made that mistake and they will be able to lower the price whenever they want, right now they don’t need that tough as demand is more than high!

    So even if PS3 will eventually drop the price I don’t think they will be able to match MS price, which console is set for another redesign of the hardware which will cost even less (I’m talking about the one that brings GPU+CPU together) and may even lead to a 360 Slim!
    Heck, I don’t even think that Sony will ever meet the 199$ “sweet spot”, or at least not in the next 2-3 years, and that will hurt PS3 sales for the rest of the generation!!!


  31. The wii is here to stay for two main reasons:

    1. People who are not into consoles go out and buy a Wii (mainly because of the friendly entrance to gaming due to the controller that looks more like a remote control than a controller which is holding off many people)

    2. Because the ‘gamers’ who go out for a next gen console, ending up making their choice between a ps3 or 360 are buying a Wii as a great family/multiplayer console to accompany their ‘first’ choice.

    So they win in both camps, which the other ‘next gen’ consoles are not having (despite the huge success of Sony in the ps2 camp)


  32. I can’t help being reminded of the guy in my local high street with the placard saying the end of the world is nigh.

    He has been there for 20 years and has little chance of ever being right but he still gets up every day and ventures out for another try.


  33. “Dross” is a noun, not an adjective.


  34. I think the magic of the WII can not be seen by an experienced gamer or gaming insider. For the unexperience gamer the Wii is magic. So what? Because it will bring in an entirely new demographic that has so far been untapped — women, younger children, 40-somethings who didn’t grow up on video games. Even my 90 year old grandmother plays it in the nursing home for exercise. I would never before have considered buying a video game — now I would do it for my physical health. If anything, Wii is the gateway drug for those of us who didn’t get hooked on gaming as kids.


  35. * Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on.

    The Nintendo DS just proved that sales can continue above record numbers. There’s an entirely new market out there. Nintendo brought out a whole new ballgame to a vast market the PS2 already put out.

    * The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people.

    HDTV sales have slowed down this holiday season.

    * The Xbox 360 is cheaper.

    Only for the XBox Arcade. You need to spend $300 to fully enjoy an XBox 360. And how long has that been out? And how long has the Wii been spreading the sales gap of the two?

    * The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.

    Not everyone likes FPSs or RPGs. Not to mention the amount of money a year to play online.

    * The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovelware. And game consoles are for playing games.

    Actually, the variety of games and the rate their sold is a solid sign of being the leader this generation. The Wii’s also got a solid 09 lineup to satisfy all types of gamers.

    * Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.

    StarFox, Donkey Kong, F-Zero, Pikmin, Kid Icarus, Kirby…none of those first party titles have had a Wii platformer just yet. Zelda will soon be getting its first Wii-engine built title and then another Mario. If anything, Sony and Microsoft have laid out all of their iconic titles outside Resident Evil and Final Fantasy.

    * The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.

    Who’s backed out? There are guys that never supported the Wii, but there’s never been anyone’s who backed off Wii publishing.

    * Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.

    Demand for the Wii is skyrocketing so much that supply is constrained, keeping the Wii a “must have” as it breezes by “fad” status.

    * Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.

    If anything’s been learned this holiday season, it’s that the videogame industry is largely untouched by the recession. The Wii just had a record season and it’s still the cheapest (let’s face it, the Arcade isn’t a console) of the three major home consoles this generation.

    * Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns.

    Actually, it is still roughly 80M behind the PS2 — which had many casual users. And there are new markets such as China and India in which to sell consoles.

    – Courtesy of VGChartz

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